What does a P90 forecast indicate?

A P90 forecast represents a statistical analysis where there is a 90% probability of completing a project on or before a specified date. This type of forecasting is commonly used in project management to assess time estimates and offers stakeholders a high level of assurance regarding project timelines. In essence, when a project manager states a P90 date, they indicate that the project is expected to finish by that date 90% of the time, thereby allowing for better scheduling and planning efforts.

This approach helps inform decisions related to risk management and resource allocation, as it outlines a conservative timeline that acknowledges potential uncertainties and delays in project execution. By setting such a benchmark, project teams can prepare for the likelihood of earlier completion and strategize accordingly to meet deadlines without undue pressure.